wholesale bangles jewelry The impact of the financial crisis on my country's investment, consumption and exports

iced faux micro pave jewelry wholesale The impact of the financial crisis on China
This will explain the impact of the global financial crisis on China from three perspectives: consumption, investment, and import and export.
. The US financial crisis will bring significantly adverse effects on the Chinese economy
Compared with the real economy, the global integration process of the virtual economy is relatively slow. In general, the impact of the subprime crisis is more limited to the category of the virtual economy, and the impact on the world economy will be relatively small compared with the real economic crisis of the same scale. If the rescue of the market can be successful, the real economy of the United States will not be further harmed, and the range of world economic adjustments will be reduced accordingly. As far as my country is concerned, the direct impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on the macroeconomic, while the indirect impact is relatively large, and mainly through the RMB exchange rate changes, the fluctuation of international market price, and the decrease in domestic demand in the United States. The three major demands have declined to varying degrees.
1. The export of foreign trade in my country is significantly slowed
The outbreak of the "excess consumption" crisis in the United States will at least be China's "excess production" dilemma. Earlier, the reason why the U.S. imbalanced economic structure was able to maintain for 20 years was mainly the excess production represented by China to hedge the consumption of the United States. The decline in US consumption power will inevitably bring two direct consequences to China is the reduction of export demand, especially the reduction of US exports. According to customs data, in the first two quarters of 2007, my country's exports to the United States increased year -on -year by 20.4%and 15.6%, respectively. After the outbreak of the U.S. sub -loan crisis in July, the third quarter of my country ’s exports to the United States was only 12.4%year -on -year, and the fourth quarter fell to 10.8%. From January to August this year, the name of bilateral trade between China and the United States increased by 13.3%, but the deduction of RMB appreciation factor fell more than 10 percentage points from the same period last year.

It we can notice from the figure above. Before 2006, the total foreign trade export of my country was highly consistent with the growth of exports to the United States, but in 2007, it appeared a little abnormal. Compared with 2006, my country's exports to the United States in 2007 fell rapidly, down 10.5 percentage points. At the same time, my country's overall foreign trade exports have declined significantly, and the decline is only 1.5 percentage points. The reason is that my country's exports to developed economies such as India, ASEAN, and Russia have accelerated their exports with developed countries such as Japan and the European Union, which has largely offset the adverse effects on the weakening of the US exports to a large extent. Because of this, some experts once believed that the decline in the US economy had a little impact on the overall economy of the Chinese economy, but it turned out that this abnormal phenomenon was only temporary. With the influence of the subprime mortgage crisis in the previous period and the continuous spread of oil prices, the economy of other countries has declined. Since the beginning of this year, the exports of my country's main (export volume accounted for more than 5 %) areas and countries have fallen rapidly and rapidly. From this development trend, over time, the adverse impact of US economic adjustment on the entire world economy will become increasing. The total foreign trade exports in my country will inevitably return to the orbit that is consistent with the high export of the United States.
Table 1: The export growth of major countries and regions in recent years (%)
The, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, China
2004 32.2 77.3 23.7 38.4 50.4
2005 23.4 50.8 50.8 14.3 26.2 22.2
2006 24.8 63.2 9.1 26.8 25.3
2007 18.7 64.7 11.4 26.1 13.1
2008.7 49.0 15.9 39.4 18.4
38.7 48.5
2005 45.1 30.4 25.2 29.1 34.1
2006 19.8 24.9 23.2 26.6
2007 79.9 14.4 32.1 34.7
2008.7 28.0 33.9 27.1 n 2005 The contribution of exports to GDP has always been more than two percentage points. Once the power of export disappearance is directly, the impact of two percentage points is 2 percentage points. If you add indirect impact on investment and consumption, the decline in economic growth will be greater.
It, according to the latest U.S. government's market rescue plan, the legal upper limit of Treasury bonds has increased from US $ 10.6 trillion to $ 11.3 trillion in the past, and its scale exceeds 80 % of the GDP last year. Since a large number of US Treasury bonds in the United States are held by foreign investors (as of the end of July, Japan is the country holding the most US Treasury bonds, with a total of 593.4 billion U.S. dollars. China holds 518.7 billion US dollars ranks second and 3rd. The British in the position holds $ 290.8 billion, and the three countries have increased their holdings by nearly 10 billion yuan from June). The US government always tends to make the US dollar depreciate to reduce its debt. In addition, the United States relies on a large amount of funds to the market to alleviate the financial crisis, which may eventually lead to excess liquidity in the US dollar. Preliminary estimates that after a short shock, the RMB exchange rate is likely to re -enter the orbit of appreciated, thereby further suppressing the growth of Chinese commodity exports.
Table 2: In recent years, the proportion of exports of major trade exports in my country (%)
2.3
2005 16.3 1.2 11.0 4.6 2.2
2006 16.0 1.5 9.5 4.6 2.1
2007 15.4 2.1 8.5 4.0
2008.7 13.5 2.3 8.2 5.9

2003 1.4 21.1 1.4 7.1 16.5
2004 1.5 21.1 1.5 7.2 18.1
2005 1.7 21.4 1.3 18.9
2006 21.0 1.4 18.8
2007 1.5 1.5 8.6 20.1.1
2008.7 2.2 17.5 1.5 8.2 20.6
2. The weakening of the willingness and ability of enterprise investment n The impact of US subprime mortgage crisis on Chinese enterprise investment is good or bad, but the impact of bad. For example, the subprime mortgage crisis helps Chinese enterprises bypass the market's quasi -entry and acquisition barriers, expand investment in the United States at a relatively reasonable cost, and accelerate the international layout through acquisition, shares and capital injection. From this perspective, the subprime crisis brings a good impact. However, from the perspective of domestic investment, the subprime crisis is mainly caused by the adverse effects, and it will be reflected in the following aspects:
1 is the decline in enthusiasm for investment in enterprises. Many uncertain factors and potential risks existing in the subprime crisis have made people generally rise in risk disgust and general confidence in economic growth. At present, whether it is foreign economic research institutions or domestic research institutions, the expectations of world economic growth and China's economic growth are lowered, which will undoubtedly affect the investment decision -making of enterprises. Because the purpose of enterprise investment is to obtain better returns, in the case of increasing uncertainty and poor expected future investment income, appropriate control of the scale of fixed asset investment in the short term becomes a rational choice for entrepreneurs.
It is to weaken foreign direct use of foreign capital capabilities. With the continuous deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis, in order to protect themselves, Western Financial Crocoders sold overseas assets and cash out the crisis to avoid becoming the next "Lehman". At present, a number of foreign institutions have listed huge listings on China assets. Among them, Lehman, who is applying for bankruptcy, is looking for "next home" for his Chinese business for self -rescue. The US International Group (AIG) also plans to raise operating funds by selling assets including China Life Insurance, which has been included in the list of packaging and sale. In the real estate market, the property size of the property of Lehman, Merrillin, Morgan Stanley, and the US International Bank of China is as high as US $ 10 billion.
It is to reduce the investment income of enterprises. In recent years, among my country's fixed asset investment funds, self -raised funds have the largest proportion. The transformation of this capital structure indicates that investment behavior is largely determined by market laws. When market prosperity and corporate profit margin are high, investment will rise rapidly. vice versa. This is completely different from the situation when the government and the state -owned enterprises were investing in the past. Some studies believe that if the profit of American companies decreases by 1 percent point, the profit growth of Chinese companies will decrease by 10 percentage points. In the future, the increasing profit growth of corporate profits in the future will greatly weaken the investment motivation of the enterprise. From January to August, industrial enterprises above designated size (enterprises with annual main business income of 5 million yuan, the same below) achieved a profit of 1868.5 billion yuan, an increase of 19.4%year-on-year, a decrease of 17.6 percentage points from the same period last year.
The fourth is that international resource prices may have a large rebound. As mentioned above, in order to solve the huge debt problems, the United States will inevitably reduce pressure through interest rate cuts, issuance currency and other means. As a result, it is likely that the US dollar depreciation and resource prices will rise. In this way, the space for the decline in the price of production materials in my country will be suppressed to a certain extent. Under the condition of increased costs, it will inevitably curb the enthusiasm of the enterprise's investment, making it difficult for the actual investment to increase significantly.
Five is to weaken the investment capacity of some Chinese export companies. Affected by the subprime crisis, the sales and operating conditions of American companies have been hit to varying degrees, the capital turnover is difficult, the external payment capacity decreases, the payment speed becomes slower, and the default rate is increased. The crisis, the birthplace of the subprime mortgage crisis has become the hardest hit area for overseas business accounts for Chinese foreign trade companies. With a slow recovery of corporate funds, there may even be a dilemma that may not recover funds, and its decline in investment capacity has become inevitable.
3. Consumption hotspots are further cool down
This behind this round of rapid economic growth is the upgrading of residents' consumption structure. Auto, housing, building decoration, entertainment, tourism, education, and communications have become new consumption hotspots. Affected by domestic economic cyclical adjustment, most consumption hotspots have cool down to varying degrees, and the emergence of subprime crisis will undoubtedly play a role in worse to a certain extent.
1 is weakening the actual purchasing power of some residents. In the first half of this year, a large number of Chinese companies closed down, and most of the small and medium -sized enterprises in the eastern coastal coastal were the appreciation of the RMB under the promotion of the subprime mortgage crisis and the reduction of foreign demand. Millions of employees who are unemployed because of the bankruptcy of the enterprise must tighten their belts to comprehensively reduce consumption expenditure. At the same time, the subprime crisis has also played a role in the adjustment of the A -share market in my country. Because "China's middle class is almost exhausted in the stock market", the "negative effect" of the wealth of the stock market adjustment will be unprecedented, and the middle class will be displayed. Almost all new consumption hotspots for consumer entities will cool down.
It is to reduce the expectations of residential income. A large number of studies have shown that the income of residents in modern society is expected to have a huge impact on the consumption behavior of residents, and its influence is even greater than the changes in the actual income of the residents. When residents expect their future disposable income to increase, they will loosen the budget constraints of the current consumption expenditure to a certain extent. At this time, residents may use the current disposable income to meet the current consumer demand more, and may even increase the current consumer demand in the way of increasing liabilities, that is, the pre -pre -pre -expenditure in the future. However, if residents expect the disposable income in the future, it will not increase or even decrease, they may tighten the current consumption expenditure and increase savings. Judging from the current actual situation, the sub -loan crisis and its future economy uncertainty expectations have obviously deteriorated the expectations of my country's residents for future revenue growth. And the new consumption hotspot is different from the past consumption hotspots -most of them belong to the category of luxury consumption to varying degrees, so they not only have great elasticity for income growth, but also more vulnerable to revenue expectations. The influence, because the first compression of residents' income is not good, the seemingly unpretentious luxury consumption.
three is to suppress credit consumption. Relevant studies have shown that once the average cash consumption amount exceeds 6-8 times its average monthly income, it is more difficult to occur, so large consumption in modern society often needs to rely on credit loans to support. For the Chinese, the premise of the credit consumption development of "consumption first, and then payment" is that it has good expectations for their future income growth. Credit consumption will be suppressed, and the adverse impact on housing credit consumption is particularly obvious. The subprime mortgage crisis explosion in the US real estate market, and it will also extend the adjustment period of the US real estate market. It will have at least the following two impacts on China's real estate credit consumption: First, the continuous adjustment of the U.S. real estate market will start To a certain demonstration role, the psychology of developers and home buyers has caused a certain pressure, which leads to the downturn in the domestic real estate market. Second, the root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis is that credit consumption is abused. The threshold for consumption to ensure the security of consumer credit, coupled with the current major banks in the real estate industry have precipitated a large number of loans. In this case, the bank's mortgage of residents must be relatively tight. The reduction of housing credit consumption will also affect the consumption of residents' products such as building materials, decoration, furniture, home appliances and other products. According to calculations, every 100 yuan residence can drive other goods sales of 130 to 150 yuan, and vice versa.
. The domestic economy itself is in the adverse period of economic structural transformation and periodic adjustment of the "double factor superposition"
It from the economic operation status in recent years, since the third quarter of last year, the growth rate of GDP growth has obviously It has entered a periodic callback stage. However, the GDP increase in the first quarter of this year fell by 1.3 percentage points from last year, and the first half of the year fell by 1.8 percentage points from the same period last year. Compared with the early fluctuation range, the economic growth in 2008 was significantly large. Judging from the latest monthly data, the added value of industrial industries above designated size in August suddenly dropped from 16%in June to 12.8%. Even if some northern companies stopped production in August for the Olympic Games, their declines were still large.
The appearance of this phenomenon is not accidental. In fact, my country's economic structural transformation and periodic adjustment of "double factor superposition effects" are inevitable.
In recent years, the government has promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure through various means, reducing the dependence of natural resources, alleviating the pressure of environmental protection, and promoting the sustainable economic development of the economy. However, theoretically, the negative impact of economic transformation policies on economic growth in the short term is obvious. The restricted industries will slow down the pressure in a short period of time, and even gradually withdraw from. At the same time, due to the inadequate support policies, lagging market cultivation, related mechanisms in the running -in period, bottlenecks of technology development, the new industrial growth will be slow, and the negative effects of hedging cannot be hedamed. At present, the leading industries that support my country's economic growth, such as building materials, steel, chemical industry, automobiles, real estate, textiles, etc., have clearly felt the policy pressure of this economic transformation. The exit in the industry is obvious on the negative impact of the economy of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region.
At the same time, the national economy itself has experienced a 5 -year rising period, and it has also begun to enter the periodic adjustment period. Its logo is the adjustment of the real estate and automobile market. In fact, the real estate market has been severely shrinking since last year. Many places are almost in a state of no market. Since this year, the prices of many large cities have begun to reduce. At present, the effective demand of the real estate market is seriously insufficient. Consumers who have the ability to buy have been severely overdrawn, and consumers who have no ability to buy have already given up. In this case, the adjustment of the real estate market will continue. The adjustment of the automotive market began in the second quarter of this year. Although it was stimulated by relevant policies during this year, some car prices were repeated, but from the actual situation of the industry, the car production capacity has reached 12 million units, but the sales volume is less than 9 million. The trend of industry prosperity adjustment will not change. Because the automotive industry and the real estate industry are the latest rounds of economic growth, the former can drive the development of 156 related industries such as steel machinery and electronics, while the latter drives the development of 45 related industries such as building materials and home appliances. With the entry of automotive and real estate to enter the industry's prosperity adjustment period, the entire national economy will inevitably enter the periodic adjustment stage. 3. In the danger of "three major demands at the same time" in our economy next year, the economy may have a "three major demand at the same time"
1. The overall limited international influence
According to the above analysis, the subprime crisis will adversely affect my country's investment, consumption and exports. In contrast, the subprime crisis has an indirect impact on my country's investment and consumption. If conditions permit, they can be heed to a large extent. However, the adverse impact of the subprime crisis on exports is not only obvious, but it cannot be eliminated through any domestic channel. Data show that since the second quarter of this year, in the case of my country's consumption steady consumption, industrial added value has been declining. The reason for this departure is that in the second quarter, my country's industrial export delivery value has also declined, and because industrial enterprises have achieved a high proportion of the total output value of the industrial output, industrial production depends on foreign abroad. The level of the market is relatively high, and the slowdown of export delivery value growth directly leads to a decline in industrial growth, which has led to the slowdown of GDP growth.

Despite this, we cannot have too much fear of the subprime crisis, mainly because my country's economic growth has strong endogenousness. After entering the new millennium, the Chinese economy has not only led the world economy, but also has a significant stronger than the world economy. To a certain extent, it is under the role of China's strong domestic demand that the economy of other countries in the world has re -activated. A research report by Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roki showed that in 2003, China ’s foreign trade imports absorbed 22%of US exports, 28%of German exports, and 32%of Japan’ s exports. Many reports pointed out that after entering the new millennium, China is the country with the greatest contribution to world economic growth.

The all shows that although the US subprime mortgage crisis has a certain negative impact on China's economic growth, it is limited and it is difficult to hurt the foundation. The prospect of China's economic growth depends to a large extent on its own factors. As long as the macro -control should be properly cope, China's economy is still likely to continue to maintain a stable and rapid development trend.
. The weakening of the domestic economic growth power
The relevant data shows that the company's self -raised funds have become three -quarters of the investment funds of fixed assets. The transformation of this capital structure indicates that investment behavior is largely determined by market laws. When market prosperity and corporate profit margin are high, investment will rise rapidly. vice versa. This is completely different from the situation when the government and the state -owned enterprises were investing in the past. Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous rapid rise in the prices of oil, food and ore and resource raw material, corporate costs have risen sharply, leading to a rapid decline in the actual growth rate of fixed asset investment.
In past experience, under the significant weakening of the growth of fixed asset investment, economic growth may also fall in a slow way, but the premise is that there is a rapid growth of foreign demand, or the consumer demand is supporting support. Essence However, from the perspective of foreign demand, although the impact of U.S. subordinate bonds on the world economy may be significantly alleviated, it can only prevent the world economy from deteriorating significantly and cannot change the trend of continued adjustment of the world economy. Therefore, my country's economy will be in the next few years. The external demand driving force will be significantly weakened. From the perspective of domestic demand, although the consumption climax of residents in history has appeared after the climax of economic growth, the main cause is the centralized release of early cumulative wealth. However, from the current situation, the past stories may no longer be repeated. In the early stage, the consumption heat of residents represented by housing and cars in the early period was stimulated by consumer credit to a greater extent. The wealth of residents has been overdrawn in advance. In addition, the stock market has fallen sharply. It's right.